NWS Forecast Discussion

For Fremont, NH

000
FXUS61 KGYX 230358
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1058 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves in from the northwest this evening, bringing
snow showers and a shift toward colder temperatures for at
least a few days, but even these will be near or just a little
below normal. Low pressure tracks south of New England on
Tuesday and brings a chance of snow, mainly over southern areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1055 PM Update...Just a few minor adjustments to the forecast
for the overnight hours based on latest trends in observational
data. Gradual clearing is taking place downwind of the
mountains, and this should slowly continue overnight. Scattered
snow showers are expected for the next few hours before waning.

615 PM Update...Just a few minor changes to the going forecast
at this hour. Adjusted PoPs a little bit based on latest radar
returns. There will be scattered snow showers and a few squalls
for the next couple of hours, but any activity should wane mid-
evening.

Previously...

Impacts: Brief reductions in visibility and slick roads will be
possible in any heavier snow showers/squalls this evening and
tonight.

A shortwave will slowly rotate through the region through tomorrow
morning, bringing with it plenty of clouds and some scattered snow
showers. An associated cold front will also bring cooler
temperatures. An area of snow showers is currently moving through
portions of central NH and western ME and will continue to push
south and east. High- res guidance has trended toward a drier
and less organized solution throughout the day, but still cannot
rule out a few snow squalls this evening into early tonight.
Squalls and other heavier snow showers could cause brief reductions
in visibility and slick roads, particularly later this evening
and early tonight as temperatures fall rather quickly behind the
wave. Lows will range from the positive single digits north to
the upper teens south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Impacts: Scattered show showers possible in the mountains.
Breezy winds beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing
through Saturday night with wind chill values below zero likely
throughout the region Saturday night.

Any precipitation in the short term is expected to be limited to
the mountains, but it will be breezy and colder. High pressure
will attempt to build into New England, but it will be running
into a potent low pressure system over Newfoundland and far
eastern Quebec. This will allow winds to become gusty later
Saturday morning and continuing through Saturday night. High
temperatures will be several degrees colder than Friday,ranging
from the lower teens north to the mid 20s south. As mentioned,
Saturday night will be quiet except for a stray snow shower in
the mountains, but the winds will remain gusty as lows drop to
near zero north and into the positive single digits and lower
teens south. This will push wind chill values Saturday night
down below zero all the way into southern NH and southwestern
ME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
It says a lot about how anomalous a northern hemisphere winter
is, when you can disrupt the polar vortex in mid-late January
and barely get temps below normal in New England. Yet, that is
the state of the atmosphere this winter, and as we head into
the last week of January will see a mean trough across the Ern
2/3 of the CONUS, although it will be very shallow and also dry,
so there will be only minor disturbances and temps running on
the cool side of normal in the period and probably on the warm
edge of normal later in the week.

Sunday will be blustery and cold with highs in the teens N, to
the mid to upper 20s in the S. Upslope clouds and SHSN will
dominate the mtns in the morning, but should begin to diminish
later in the day. In the downslope it should be mainly sunny.
Daytime wind chills will run from near zero in the mtns to
10-15 in the south. The NW flow persists Sunday night into
Monday, but will be lighter, with lows Sunday night the single
digits in the N to 10-15 in the south, but highs on Monday turn
a little warmer rising into the 20s to low 30s under mainly
clear skies.

Low pressure passes south of New England on Tuesday, and for
now models are trending away from the CWA, although there is
some possibility it could produce some light snow in srn areas.
Another trough pushes in from the W behind this system, and may
drop temps back by a few degrees for Wed-Thu, but it should be
dry.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Light snow showers remain possible at all terminals
through early tonight, coming to an end from west to east
a little after midnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions generally
expected through the short term except at HIE. Winds become
gusty out of the northwest late Saturday morning and continue
through Saturday night.

Long Term...Mainly VFR. Some flight restrictions possible
Tuesday at KCON/KMHT/KPSM in light SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gales have been issued for all waters except for
Casco Bay, from midday Saturday into Sunday.

Long Term...Persistent NW flow likely to produce SCA winds thru
much of the period, starting out as gales on Sunday. Also expect
light freezing spray at times Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday for
     ANZ153.
     Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to noon EST Sunday for
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Ekster/Watson
SHORT TERM...Watson
LONG TERM...Cempa

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion