NWS Forecast Discussion
For Fremont, NH
000 FXUS61 KGYX 170211 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1011 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain stalled over southern New England tonight through Wednesday and will be the focus for occasional shower activity through the period. Several more waves of low pressure will move east along this boundary Thursday through Friday bringing the potential for heavy rain. High pressure is expected to build in from the west for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 1010 PM...Although a few showers may continue to cross srn zones through about midnight, they will be very light, after that look for clearing from NW-SE with lows in the upper 40s to mid to upper 50s S. 715 PM...Still waiting sfc low to pass tour our south, which it should do between 00-03Z, so may see SHRA surge nwd a bit this evening, but this will be last of the showers and for the most part they will exit the region by midnight, or just after in the mid-coast. Previously...The first area of rain is moving thru the Srn half of the forecast area currently...with generally light to moderate rain. Across Nrn zones it is showery or downright sunny. Some higher cirrus will eventually move in across the N this evening...associated with the main S/WV trof...but it will stay dry. That S/WV is quite evident on upper level WV imagery...and lift ahead of it will bring a second area of rain thru the Srn half of the area this evening and into the overnight. This time around it will be a little more showery and start to get squeeze a little bit from the N as the front sags farther S...but again light to moderate at best. I have extended the timing of likely PoP a few hours to account for this second wave. With the high cloud cover and front pushing thru I think temps will be a little warmer and valley fog a little less likely. I cannot rule it out if Nrn zones can clear out quickly after midnight...but I have taken it out of the forecast for now. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Front clears far enough S for a nice day across Nrn New England. Plenty of sun and deeper mixing will allow temps well into the 70s and even low 80s across parts of NH. Otherwise quiet into Mon night. Will have to watch for some cooler temps and patchy valley fog as long as cloud cover stays far enough away. The next convectively enhanced S/WV trof will track towards the region very late Mon. While I expect mainly dry a few showers may sneak into far Srn NH after dawn. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Stalled frontal boundary across southern New England will be the focus for shower activity Tuesday through Wednesday... Looking for partly to mostly sunny skies in northern zones on Tuesday. Farther south...onshore flow will have ocean stratus flirting with coastal and southern interior sections of Maine and New Hampshire through the day. Will be including some low chance pops for southern New Hampshire and extreme southwest Maine for any showers which may stray across the border. Will see some afternoon instability in southern New Hampshire but with marine layer in place and little in the way of forcing... will be leaving out mention of thunder at this point. Highs on Tuesday will reach the lower to mid 70s in most locations. Frontal boundary will sag a little further south Tuesday night bringing partial clearing in southern zones during the evening before ocean stratus moves back into southern zones after midnight. Lows will range from the upper 40s north to the mid 50s south. Wednesday looking much like Tuesday with ocean stratus in southern zones gradually burning off and a chance of afternoon showers in these areas. High temperatures will be fairly uniform across the region with highs reaching the mid 70s. Ocean stratus will once again invade southern zones Wednesday night as moist onshore flow continues. Lows will generally range through the 50s. Frontal boundary will once again shift northward on Thursday as the next shortwave approaches from the west. Several waves of low pressure will track east along this boundary with the first of these shifting into southern New England by Thursday evening. Increasing onshore flow will spread stratus into much of New Hampshire and western Maine through the day. Expect rain to push into western zones by early afternoon and will overspread the remainder of the forecast area through early evening. Rain will be heavy at times in the afternoon as PWAT`s climb into the 1.5 inch range across a good portion of New Hampshire and western Maine. Rain will continue Thursday night as another wave of low pressure tracks east through southern New England. Rainfall totals through Friday morning will be in the 1 to 2 inch range with the axis of heaviest precipitation across southern and central zones. Lows overnight will dip into the lower to mid 50s. Clouds and leftover showers will hang around for much of the day on Friday...especially in southern and coastal zones. Expect any additional precipitation to be light and spotty. High temperatures will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Looking for clearing Friday night as drier air tucks in from the north overnight. Lows overnight will bottom out in the lower to mid 50s. Weekend looking fair and mild as high pressure builds in from the west. Highs both days will be in the lower to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...Generally MVFR conditions are occurring with -RA moving across the Srn half of NH and parts of Wrn ME. There are pockets of IFR CIGs especially across far Srn NH...which will lift in the next couple of hours as steady RA comes to an end. Otherwise front continues slow progress S. After sunset lower CIGs and some FG may try and form S of the front...but mainly over the waters. This may sneak into coastal parts of Wrn ME before drier air helps to improve things back to VFR...which lasts thru Mon night. Long Term... VFR Tuesday and Wednesday with areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings in southern zones. IFR/LIFR conditions develop Thursday afternoon and will persist through Friday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds. Ahead of the cold front tonight some areas of dense fog may form...but winds turning offshore after midnight will clear the waters out by morning. Long Term...No problems noted. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Cempa/Legro SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...