NWS Forecast Discussion

For Fremont, NH

647
FXUS61 KGYX 191327
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
927 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region today and will be followed by
high pressure building in from the west overnight. High pressure
will crest over the region on Tuesday before shifting offshore
to the southeast. A weak disturbance will push east through
southern New England late Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
Weak low pressure will slowly move northeast through southern
Quebec Wednesday night and will drive a trailing cold front
through the region after midnight. A secondary trough of low
pressure will drop southeast through the region Thursday night
and Friday. High pressure will gradually build in from the west
over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
925 AM Update...Some relatively minor adjustments to the
forecast this morning based on latest trends in radar and
satellite data as well as info from latest CAMs. Skies have
cleared out across NH and this will allow the atmosphere to
destabilize. An area of weakening showers will cross northern NH
over the next couple of hours, but measurable is unlikely at
most locations. Otherwise, low clouds and fog will continue to
lift across central and Midcoast zones except for perhaps the
immediate Midcoast where they should hang on longer. For this
afternoon, latest mesoscale models continue to show a broken
line of storms moving across the forecast area between 2 and 7
PM. Not all areas will get one, but strong gusty winds will be
possible in the strongest cells.

Previously...

700 AM Update...
Warm front currently pushing through eastern zones with the
remainder of last nights showers. Farther south...ocean stratus
beginning to thin out across southeast New Hampshire and this
trend will continue to the north and east into southern interior
Maine through mid morning as boundary layer winds turn more
southwesterly and mixing picks up. Have adjusted pops and wx
based on latest radar trends and tweaked area temps/tds. No
other changes planned attm.

Prev Disc...Warm front currently lifting northeast through
central Maine early this morning and expect associated showers
to be exiting eastern zones by daybreak or shortly after.
Another line of convection ahead of an approaching cold front
currently moving through far western New York and the HRRR
pretty much kills this activity off as it moves into western New
England later this morning. Expect convection to redevelop
early this afternoon as the front pushes into northwest New
England.

SPC has all of the forecast area in a marginal risk for today.
Best shear will be found in northern zones this afternoon as
daytime heating generates some moderate to strong CAPE. Would
expect potential wind damage with stronger cells in northern
zones as shear combines with PWAT`s of 1.5 inches or better,
resulting in good precip loading in more organized lines or line
segments. Farther south expect more scattered storms with the
potential for heavy rain and damaging winds. Have highlighted
the potential damaging winds and heavy rain in the zones.

Mostly sunny skies this morning will quickly boost temperatures
through the 80s to near 90 in far southern New Hampshire.
Getting some marginal apparent temps of 95 to 97 in the
Manchester/Nashua section of southern New Hampshire but impact
should be minimal and brief so holding off on heat advisories at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Cold front will quickly push east of the region this evening
with any convection shifting east of the area through midnight.
Expect clearing skies and light winds overnight with patchy
valley fog in the usual spots. Lows overnight will range from
the mid 50s north to the mid 60s south.

Cooler and much drier air will move into the region on Tuesday
as high pressure builds in from the west. Looking for mostly
sunny skies and highs from the mid 70s north to the mid 80s
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A bit unsettled early in the long term but cooler and drier air
will eventually arrive for the weekend.

For Tuesday night a frontal system to the south of the forecast
area will move back north with increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms through Wednesday night. Dewpoint temperatures
will climb back to near 70 Wednesday afternoon. A cold front
will move through the forecast area before Thursday. The timing
on this front is a bit in question. The later in the day with
frontal passage the greater the chance for afternoon
thunderstorms. The ECMWF has the front moving through a bit
later than the GFS. For now I have the higher POPS in the
morning with a low chance POP in the afternoon. Still a warm day
Thursday but dewpoint temperatures will be a bit more
comfortable. The cooler and drier air sets in for Friday with
dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Showers possible in the
mountains Friday afternoon. Saturday through Monday should be
quite pleasant with high temperatures in the 70s and low
humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...IFR/LIFr ceilings and vsby in coastal and southern
interior sections of Maine and New Hampshire this
morning...improving to VFR this afternoon. VFR tonight and
Tuesday.

Long Term...Expect occasional MVFR/IFR in showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Friday possible MVFR in
afternoon showers at HIE but VFR expected elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...No flags.

Long Term...SCA possible Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...Ekster

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion