NWS Forecast Discussion
For Fremont, NH
000 FXUS61 KGYX 101120 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 720 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure shifts southeast today and allows for one more warm, pleasant day. Low pressure passing by to our south tomorrow brings a threat of light rain showers especially to southern New Hampshire. Multiple areas of low pressure linger near the area next week with periods of showers expected at times through late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 715 AM...A quick update mainly adjusted sky based on current satellite trend, which suggest general less clouds and more sun through the morning. Just watching the one band of clouds in central and southern Nh, which should break up as it moves W this morning. Sfc ridging nosing in from the S this morning gets squeezed out by one low to our east, moving S, and other to out W, moving N. For the most part though today will be dry, mild and at least partly sunny, as we see mainly cirrus move overhead through much of the day. Two exceptions will be in SW NH where some mid level clouds linger this morning, but eventually break up with 500 MB ridge shifting to the W, and the ern zones, which will see clouds increasing mid-late afternoon as wave rotating around upper lvl to our east pushes back door front into the ern zones. Highs will range from 65-70 in the eastern zones to the low to mid 70s in NH and interior SW ME. It`ll be coolest along the mid coast again, with highs only around 60. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Tonight, will see back door cold front push into the ern zones, and eventually into the rest of the CWA by Sunday morning. This will set off a few showers in ern zones overnight, probably more focused on this evening than toward daybreak. Not expecting anything heavy and QPF maxes out around a tenth of an inch. Further S and W, will see low clouds and fog develop, but otherwise will stay dry in these areas. Lows will mostly be in the 40s. Sunday will feature a lot of clouds and noticeably cooler highs as NE flow kicks in behind the front, Any showers in the E should be done by morning, and any showers associated with the cold front returning as a warm front should hold off until sunday night, although cannot rule out a few showers late in the day in SW NH. Highs will mostly in the 50s, warmest in the CT valley, and coolest on the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Blocked flow aloft amid anomalous Canadian ridging allows for a dance party of cut-off lows overhead next week. While surface high pressure and weak forcing aloft keeps local weather quiet and seasonable as disturbances pinwheel around us early in the week, the pattern grows more uncertain by mid- and especially late-week. Thus low pressure may shift overhead and bring back showery weather to New England. For potential hazards... the fickle pattern demands reliance on ensemble analysis which doesn`t yield much given weak kinematic fields overhead and neither a strong moist or dry signal; QPF amounts in any given 24-hr period amount to half an inch or less. While the pattern in and of itself is uncertain especially further out in time, models are in fine agreement regarding a trough axis that rotates around a maritime upper low Sunday night. It sends a back door cold front south through New England into Monday... FGEN forcing from this may give a boost to the frontal boundary draped across the south and enhance any lingering rain shower activity over southern zones. Further north into the mountains and over Maine, cold/dry advection will allow for better mixing and produce a refreshing northeast breeze under clearing skies. Beyond this point it`s a matter of how long surface high pressure holds over the area. Looking to ensembles, the upstream Great Lakes low pressure seems to collapse and shift east toward the Atlantic by midweek and reintroduce shower chances, but predictability with this is quite low. By late week, we could have dry high pressure building in from Canada... or a coastal low nearby. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...VFR through today, but fog and low stratus will move into all but KHIE/KLEB this evening, with LIFR likely along the coast. Some improvement is likely Sunday, but may be stuck at MVFR through much of the day. Long Term...Lingering low ceilings on Monday across southern zones lift with an increasing NErly breeze, generally 20 kts or less. VFR prevails thereafter with periods of MVFR possible in shra at times next week but with little predictability in timing of any restrictions. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA levels through Sunday. Long Term...Low pressure lingers south and east of the waters as high pressure builds to the north early next week. A cold front dropping down from the north-northeast Sunday night allows northeasterly winds to increase on Monday with seas and winds approaching SCA thresholds during the day. Quieter conditions return for the balance of the week, although the pattern grows quite uncertain by the end of the week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Cempa SHORT TERM...Cempa LONG TERM...Casey AVIATION... MARINE...