NWS Forecast Discussion
For Fremont, NH
000 FXUS61 KGYX 230358 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1058 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves in from the northwest this evening, bringing snow showers and a shift toward colder temperatures for at least a few days, but even these will be near or just a little below normal. Low pressure tracks south of New England on Tuesday and brings a chance of snow, mainly over southern areas. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 1055 PM Update...Just a few minor adjustments to the forecast for the overnight hours based on latest trends in observational data. Gradual clearing is taking place downwind of the mountains, and this should slowly continue overnight. Scattered snow showers are expected for the next few hours before waning. 615 PM Update...Just a few minor changes to the going forecast at this hour. Adjusted PoPs a little bit based on latest radar returns. There will be scattered snow showers and a few squalls for the next couple of hours, but any activity should wane mid- evening. Previously... Impacts: Brief reductions in visibility and slick roads will be possible in any heavier snow showers/squalls this evening and tonight. A shortwave will slowly rotate through the region through tomorrow morning, bringing with it plenty of clouds and some scattered snow showers. An associated cold front will also bring cooler temperatures. An area of snow showers is currently moving through portions of central NH and western ME and will continue to push south and east. High- res guidance has trended toward a drier and less organized solution throughout the day, but still cannot rule out a few snow squalls this evening into early tonight. Squalls and other heavier snow showers could cause brief reductions in visibility and slick roads, particularly later this evening and early tonight as temperatures fall rather quickly behind the wave. Lows will range from the positive single digits north to the upper teens south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Impacts: Scattered show showers possible in the mountains. Breezy winds beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing through Saturday night with wind chill values below zero likely throughout the region Saturday night. Any precipitation in the short term is expected to be limited to the mountains, but it will be breezy and colder. High pressure will attempt to build into New England, but it will be running into a potent low pressure system over Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec. This will allow winds to become gusty later Saturday morning and continuing through Saturday night. High temperatures will be several degrees colder than Friday,ranging from the lower teens north to the mid 20s south. As mentioned, Saturday night will be quiet except for a stray snow shower in the mountains, but the winds will remain gusty as lows drop to near zero north and into the positive single digits and lower teens south. This will push wind chill values Saturday night down below zero all the way into southern NH and southwestern ME. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... It says a lot about how anomalous a northern hemisphere winter is, when you can disrupt the polar vortex in mid-late January and barely get temps below normal in New England. Yet, that is the state of the atmosphere this winter, and as we head into the last week of January will see a mean trough across the Ern 2/3 of the CONUS, although it will be very shallow and also dry, so there will be only minor disturbances and temps running on the cool side of normal in the period and probably on the warm edge of normal later in the week. Sunday will be blustery and cold with highs in the teens N, to the mid to upper 20s in the S. Upslope clouds and SHSN will dominate the mtns in the morning, but should begin to diminish later in the day. In the downslope it should be mainly sunny. Daytime wind chills will run from near zero in the mtns to 10-15 in the south. The NW flow persists Sunday night into Monday, but will be lighter, with lows Sunday night the single digits in the N to 10-15 in the south, but highs on Monday turn a little warmer rising into the 20s to low 30s under mainly clear skies. Low pressure passes south of New England on Tuesday, and for now models are trending away from the CWA, although there is some possibility it could produce some light snow in srn areas. Another trough pushes in from the W behind this system, and may drop temps back by a few degrees for Wed-Thu, but it should be dry. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...Light snow showers remain possible at all terminals through early tonight, coming to an end from west to east a little after midnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions generally expected through the short term except at HIE. Winds become gusty out of the northwest late Saturday morning and continue through Saturday night. Long Term...Mainly VFR. Some flight restrictions possible Tuesday at KCON/KMHT/KPSM in light SN. && .MARINE... Short Term...Gales have been issued for all waters except for Casco Bay, from midday Saturday into Sunday. Long Term...Persistent NW flow likely to produce SCA winds thru much of the period, starting out as gales on Sunday. Also expect light freezing spray at times Sunday into Sunday night. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ153. Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to noon EST Sunday for ANZ150>152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Ekster/Watson SHORT TERM...Watson LONG TERM...Cempa