NWS Forecast Discussion

For Fremont, NH

000
FXUS61 KGYX 111050
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
650 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and increasingly humid air will persist today. A cold
front will slowly cross the region tonight before slowly moving
off the coast on Wednesday. This will allow for slightly cooler
and drier air for the end of the work week. High pressure in the
Canadian Maritimes will allow for relatively dry and seasonable
temperatures over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...
Have updated the forecast based on current conditions and near
term forecasts across the region. Have expanded the dense fog
advisories over eastern areas into Kennebec county through 9
am. Minor adjustments made to temperatures and dew points this
morning. Otherwise, on track for a triple H day, hazy, hot and
humid.

Made adjustments to ocean temperatures per latest data from
NERACOOS buoy along the central Maine shelf. Water temperature
readings currently are running at some of their highest over the
last 20 years in that region.

Prev Disc...
Hot, hazy and humid today with the peak of the heat
over our forecast area today. A pronounced southwesterly flow
at the surface and H8 temperatures topping out at +19C will
yield temperatures in the lower 90s across much of the southern
interior. Dew point values will approach 70 over portions of the
region bringing heat indices above 95 degrees for all of
southern interior Maine and New Hampshire as well as the
foothill regions. Have expanded the heat advisory to include
interior Waldo county. A south to southwesterly flow may allow
for sufficient offshore gradient winds to allow for portions of
coastal York and coastal Rockingham counties to enter Heat
Advisory criteria, so we have added those locations as well to
the hazard.

Areas of dense fog will gradually mix out along and near the
Midcoast region this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory has been
issued for this area. Patchy fog over the interior valleys will
be mixing out as well. Otherwise, there will be a few isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms today. These will be
mainly terrain driven over the mountains and perhaps central
areas as there is not much in the way of forcing today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Patchy fog expected once again tonight in the inland valleys
and across portions of the coastal plain. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will end after sunset. However, during the late
night hours, an approaching cold front will trigger additional
precipitation.

On Wednesday, this cold front will gradually exit out of the
region. Prior to this, expect more scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Temperatures will climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s from north
to south during the day. Some coastal areas will actually have
their warmest day on Wednesday due to less of an onshore flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level trough over eastern Canada will shift southeast
through the Canadian Maritimes by this weekend while a narrow
ridge develops in its wake and tilts toward New England. At the
surface, a broad area of high pressure centered near James Bay
will gradually push eastward across northeast Canada. The
influence of this high pressure area will be felt all the way
down into New England as gradually cooler and drier air makes
its way in behind the departed cold front which stalls well to
our south. We don`t see any real rain chances through the
weekend in a subsident regime. The trough dropping southeast
through the Maritimes on Friday should stay far enough east to
avoid any showers in our area. Temperatures start off warm but
gradually become cool... even below normal... by this weekend as
an onshore easterly flow develops and undercuts the warmth of
the upper level ridge tilting in from the west. The next broader
trough swings in from the west early next week, bringing the
next chance of rain around the Tuesday time frame. However, the
best forcing with this trough stays to our north, so it may be
tough to get widespread precipitation in our area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions expected at all terminals, however
there is a slight chance for MVFR and IFR conditions to briefly
develop in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
through Wednesday, mainly over northern sections.

Long Term...Mostly VFR conditions expected with light winds
under a slow moving high pressure regime. Valley fog will be
possible most mornings in the Connecticut River Valley.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Patchy fog will continue through this morning over
the coastal waters. A south to southwesterly fetch will develop
today off the Gulf of Maine. Winds will increase and gust to as
high as 20 kt by this afternoon, perhaps approaching 25 kt at
times. Winds will switch to the southwest tonight into
Wednesday.

Long Term...High pressure shifts eastward across Canada late
this week and through the weekend. This will keep wind speeds
light over the Gulf of Maine, perhaps shifting to easterly
through the weekend.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MEZ012>014-018>023-033.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ021-022-
     025>028.
NH...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NHZ004>015.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Kimble

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion