NWS Forecast Discussion

For Fremont, NH

FXUS61 KGYX 182257

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
557 PM EST Tue Dec 18 2018

High pressure will build in from the west tonight and will crest
over the region on Wednesday. High pressure will shift offshore
Wednesday night and will hold offshore through Thursday. Low
pressure will move up the east coast Thursday night and Friday
and will push north through the region Friday night and
Saturday. A trough of low pressure will linger over the region
Saturday night and Sunday.


555 pm Update: A few snow showers continue in the foothills so
minor adj south to include those areas based on radar otherwise
no changes.

Previous Discussion:
Wind will gradually subside overnight as high pressure builds in
from the west. Mountain clouds will diminish through the evening
hours and any lingering flurries will come to an end. Aside from
variable high clouds...expect a mostly clear night with
temperatures once again falling well below normal. Lows will
range from zero to 5 above north and 5 to 15 south.


High pressure will crest over the region on Wednesday producing
mostly clear skies and seasonable temps. Highs will range from
the mid 20s to mid 30s north and mid to upper 30s in the south.

High pressure will shift offshore Wednesday night with just
variable high clouds around through the night. Lows will range
through the teens from north to south.


Overview: An area of low pressure is expected to stay to our west
Friday and Saturday, bringing widespread rainfall to our region
which may occur as a wintry mix for most locations at the onset. The
rest of the period looks rather quiet as surface high pressure
dominates and flow aloft remains predominantly out of the
northwest...although snow showers are possible on Monday.
Temperatures will start out above normal this weekend and transition
to near normal by early next week and remain there through the

Impacts/Hazards: The wintry mix Friday morning will likely make the
morning commute a slick one, especially in northern and eastern
areas where freezing rain will still be occurring and roads will
previously be wet. Otherwise, no impact weather to mention.

Details: The big story in the long term period is the system
expected to move northward through the eastern U.S. late this week
and into the weekend. The deterministic models are in decent
agreement at this point, at least with regard to keeping the system
either to our west or moving nearly overhead and in its warm sector.
In addition, this system looks to provide anomalously high PWs as it
pulls moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic northward up
the eastern seaboard.

Thursday looks quiet but with increasing clouds and warmer
temperatures than Wednesday. Precipitation chances then increase
Thursday evening as the system approaches. With below freezing
temperatures expected overnight into Friday morning, this event is
likely to at least begin with mixed precipitation late Thursday
evening and early Friday morning, likely in the form of freezing
rain or sleet. Roads will be slick during these times, particularly
in southern and western zones. Any freezing precipitation will
gradually come to and from southwest to northeast through Friday
morning as warmer air continues to stream into New England.

However...rain will continue through the day on Friday and into
Saturday as the system slowly moves northward. By Saturday evening,
a cold front will begin to push through the CWA, possibly giving a
brief shot of snow in the mountains before ending all precip by
Sunday morning. Storm total rainfall amounts from this system are in
the 1 to 2 inch range throughout the CWA...which could be
troublesome in some locations, especially with area rivers already
containing large amounts of ice. With the possibility of early
season ice jam flooding, a flood watch may be necessary as this
event draws closer.

The rest of the period looks comparatively quiet under northwest
flow aloft and broad high pressure at the surface. A weak system
may bring some snow showers to the region on Monday, but
Christmas Day looks quiet at this point with only some upslope
snow showers possible in the mountains.


Short Term...VFR tonight through Wednesday night.

Long Term...Reductions in vsby expected late Thursday evening into
Friday morning with the mixed precipitation during that period,
likely leading to MVFR or lower conditions if not already there
because of low cigs. VFR conditions otherwise, although some of the
northern terminals may see MVFR conditions in any snow showers that


Short Term...Have dropped gales down to SCA`s for Casco Bay
which will run through the night. Continuing gales for the outer
waters and Penobscot Bay through 700 PM.

Long Term...SCAs likely outside the bays throughout the period.


An onshore flow and high astronomical tides could combine to
produce some beach erosion and coastal flooding during the mid morning
high tide on Saturday.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ153.
     Gale Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ150>152-154.



NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion