NWS Forecast Discussion

For Fremont, NH

000
FXUS61 KGYX 170211
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1011 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain stalled over southern New England
tonight through Wednesday and will be the focus for occasional
shower activity through the period. Several more waves of low
pressure will move east along this boundary Thursday through
Friday bringing the potential for heavy rain. High pressure is
expected to build in from the west for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1010 PM...Although a few showers may continue to cross srn
zones through about midnight, they will be very light, after
that look for clearing from NW-SE with lows in the upper 40s to
mid to upper 50s S.

715 PM...Still waiting sfc low to pass tour our
south, which it should do between 00-03Z, so may see SHRA surge
nwd a bit this evening, but this will be last of the showers and
for the most part they will exit the region by midnight, or
just after in the mid-coast.

Previously...The first area of rain is moving thru the Srn half
of the forecast area currently...with generally light to
moderate rain. Across Nrn zones it is showery or downright
sunny. Some higher cirrus will eventually move in across the N
this evening...associated with the main S/WV trof...but it will
stay dry. That S/WV is quite evident on upper level WV
imagery...and lift ahead of it will bring a second area of rain
thru the Srn half of the area this evening and into the
overnight. This time around it will be a little more showery and
start to get squeeze a little bit from the N as the front sags
farther S...but again light to moderate at best. I have extended
the timing of likely PoP a few hours to account for this second
wave.

With the high cloud cover and front pushing thru I think temps
will be a little warmer and valley fog a little less likely. I
cannot rule it out if Nrn zones can clear out quickly after
midnight...but I have taken it out of the forecast for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Front clears far enough S for a nice day across Nrn New England.
Plenty of sun and deeper mixing will allow temps well into the
70s and even low 80s across parts of NH. Otherwise quiet into
Mon night. Will have to watch for some cooler temps and patchy
valley fog as long as cloud cover stays far enough away. The
next convectively enhanced S/WV trof will track towards the
region very late Mon. While I expect mainly dry a few showers
may sneak into far Srn NH after dawn.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stalled frontal boundary across southern New England will be
the focus for shower activity Tuesday through Wednesday...

Looking for partly to mostly sunny skies in northern zones on
Tuesday. Farther south...onshore flow will have ocean stratus
flirting with coastal and southern interior sections of Maine
and New Hampshire through the day. Will be including some low
chance pops for southern New Hampshire and extreme southwest
Maine for any showers which may stray across the border. Will
see some afternoon instability in southern New Hampshire but
with marine layer in place and little in the way of forcing...
will be leaving out mention of thunder at this point. Highs on
Tuesday will reach the lower to mid 70s in most locations.

Frontal boundary will sag a little further south Tuesday night
bringing partial clearing in southern zones during the evening
before ocean stratus moves back into southern zones after
midnight. Lows will range from the upper 40s north to the mid
50s south.

Wednesday looking much like Tuesday with ocean stratus in
southern zones gradually burning off and a chance of afternoon
showers in these areas. High temperatures will be fairly uniform
across the region with highs reaching the mid 70s.

Ocean stratus will once again invade southern zones Wednesday
night as moist onshore flow continues. Lows will generally range
through the 50s.

Frontal boundary will once again shift northward on Thursday as
the next shortwave approaches from the west. Several waves of low
pressure will track east along this boundary with the first of
these shifting into southern New England by Thursday evening.
Increasing onshore flow will spread stratus into much of New
Hampshire and western Maine through the day. Expect rain to push
into western zones by early afternoon and will overspread the
remainder of the forecast area through early evening. Rain will
be heavy at times in the afternoon as PWAT`s climb into the 1.5
inch range across a good portion of New Hampshire and western
Maine.

Rain will continue Thursday night as another wave of low
pressure tracks east through southern New England. Rainfall
totals through Friday morning will be in the 1 to 2 inch range
with the axis of heaviest precipitation across southern and
central zones. Lows overnight will dip into the lower to mid 50s.

Clouds and leftover showers will hang around for much of the day
on Friday...especially in southern and coastal zones. Expect any
additional precipitation to be light and spotty. High temperatures
will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Looking for clearing Friday night as drier air tucks in from
the north overnight. Lows overnight will bottom out in the lower
to mid 50s. Weekend looking fair and mild as high pressure
builds in from the west. Highs both days will be in the lower to
mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Generally MVFR conditions are occurring with -RA
moving across the Srn half of NH and parts of Wrn ME. There are
pockets of IFR CIGs especially across far Srn NH...which will
lift in the next couple of hours as steady RA comes to an end.
Otherwise front continues slow progress S. After sunset lower
CIGs and some FG may try and form S of the front...but mainly
over the waters. This may sneak into coastal parts of Wrn ME
before drier air helps to improve things back to VFR...which
lasts thru Mon night.

Long Term...
VFR Tuesday and Wednesday with areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings in
southern zones. IFR/LIFR conditions develop Thursday afternoon
and will persist through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds.
Ahead of the cold front tonight some areas of dense fog may
form...but winds turning offshore after midnight will clear the
waters out by morning.

Long Term...No problems noted.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa/Legro
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion