NWS Forecast Discussion

For Fremont, NH

FXUS61 KGYX 101120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
720 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

High pressure shifts southeast today and allows for one more
warm, pleasant day. Low pressure passing by to our south
tomorrow brings a threat of light rain showers especially to
southern New Hampshire. Multiple areas of low pressure linger
near the area next week with periods of showers expected at
times through late next week.


715 AM...A quick update mainly adjusted sky based on current
satellite trend, which suggest general less clouds and more sun
through the morning. Just watching the one band of clouds in
central and southern Nh, which should break up as it moves W
this morning.

Sfc ridging nosing in from the S this morning gets squeezed out by
one low to our east, moving S, and other to out W, moving N.  For
the most part though today will be dry, mild and at least partly
sunny, as we see mainly cirrus move overhead through much of
the day. Two exceptions will be in SW NH where some mid level
clouds linger this morning, but eventually break up with 500 MB
ridge shifting to the W, and the ern zones, which will see
clouds increasing mid-late afternoon as wave rotating around
upper lvl to our east pushes back door front into the ern zones.
Highs will range from 65-70 in the eastern zones to the low to
mid 70s in NH and interior SW ME. It`ll be coolest along the mid
coast again, with highs only around 60.


Tonight, will see back door cold front push into the ern zones, and
eventually into the rest of the CWA by Sunday morning. This
will set off a few showers in ern zones overnight, probably more
focused on this evening than toward daybreak. Not expecting
anything heavy and QPF maxes out around a tenth of an inch.
Further S and W, will see low clouds and fog develop, but
otherwise will stay dry in these areas. Lows will mostly be in
the 40s.

Sunday will feature a lot of clouds and noticeably cooler highs
as NE flow kicks in behind the front, Any showers in the E
should be done by morning, and any showers associated with the
cold front returning as a warm front should hold off until
sunday night, although cannot rule out a few showers late in
the day in SW NH. Highs will mostly in the 50s, warmest in the
CT valley, and coolest on the coast.


Blocked flow aloft amid anomalous Canadian ridging allows for a
dance party of cut-off lows overhead next week. While surface
high pressure and weak forcing aloft keeps local weather quiet
and seasonable as disturbances pinwheel around us early in the
week, the pattern grows more uncertain by mid- and especially
late-week. Thus low pressure may shift overhead and bring back
showery weather to New England. For potential hazards... the
fickle pattern demands reliance on ensemble analysis which
doesn`t yield much given weak kinematic fields overhead and
neither a strong moist or dry signal; QPF amounts in any given
24-hr period amount to half an inch or less.

While the pattern in and of itself is uncertain especially further
out in time, models are in fine agreement regarding a trough
axis that rotates around a maritime upper low Sunday night. It
sends a back door cold front south through New England into
Monday... FGEN forcing from this may give a boost to the frontal
boundary draped across the south and enhance any lingering rain
shower activity over southern zones. Further north into the
mountains and over Maine, cold/dry advection will allow for
better mixing and produce a refreshing northeast breeze under
clearing skies. Beyond this point it`s a matter of how long
surface high pressure holds over the area. Looking to ensembles,
the upstream Great Lakes low pressure seems to collapse and
shift east toward the Atlantic by midweek and reintroduce shower
chances, but predictability with this is quite low. By late
week, we could have dry high pressure building in from Canada...
or a coastal low nearby.


Short Term...VFR through today, but fog and low stratus will
move into all but KHIE/KLEB this evening, with LIFR likely along
the coast. Some improvement is likely Sunday, but may be stuck
at MVFR through much of the day.

Long Term...Lingering low ceilings on Monday across southern
zones lift with an increasing NErly breeze, generally 20 kts or
less. VFR prevails thereafter with periods of MVFR possible in
shra at times next week but with little predictability in
timing of any restrictions.


Short Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA levels through Sunday.

Long Term...Low pressure lingers south and east of the waters
as high pressure builds to the north early next week. A cold
front dropping down from the north-northeast Sunday night allows
northeasterly winds to increase on Monday with seas and winds
approaching SCA thresholds during the day. Quieter conditions
return for the balance of the week, although the pattern grows
quite uncertain by the end of the week.





NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion